July 30, 2013

Can Anything Stop the CFC?

Now that the Fountain war is all but over, TEST has decided to pull back to Delve, and 6VDT is behind us, I look to the future.  But I'm not sure it's very bright.

For as long as they've both been around, the HBC and CFC have had a quasi stalemate, neither organization making or attempting to make any all out assaults.  That all changed once TEST left HBC and Odyssey rolled out, of course.  We're all
well aware of the current events in EVE right now, so let's not dwell on that too much. Instead, let's speculate on what these recent events may foretell for the future of EVE.

According to Dotlan, TEST alliance is still the second largest alliance as far as sovereignty, as far as outposts go.  They lead the members list by a pretty decent margin, too.  So how is it that CFC was able to roll through a slightly larger force relatively easily?  Well, finances, for one.  A lot has been spoken on TESTS financial state recently, so we won't dwell on that much either.  In fact, TEST probably won't be mentioned much more from here on out.  I just wanted to make a comparison between the strengths of TEST and CFC, at least on paper.  Now we'll talk about what that means for the Goons.

If Goonswarm & Co. can take on the largest single alliance, crippling and marginalizing their existence in a few months, is there any hope for any other alliance?  Granted, at this point there doesn't seem to be any real reason for CFC to launch another offensive anywhere else in the galaxy, but what if there was?  What if another alliance, equal to the strength of TEST (or maybe even larger), held something of value to CFC?  Could they ever hope to hold it?

Purely from recent events, I'd say no.  The logistical strength accompanied with the numbers and activity of CFC seem to be too strong for any real opposition to rise up against them.  An organization would have to appear overnight that is immediately as powerful as the CFC to have a chance; they'd squash any rising powers that they viewed as a threat before they could actually become a threat.

Now, personally, I'd love for nullsec to be a fractured environment, dozens of equally small entities fighting tooth and nail over valuable resources.  But I think nullsec organizations are a lot like the mafia: they're ready to fight, ready to kill, but they'd rather split the profits and have peace if it means the Dons can still rake in the money with little real threat.  I don't know if there's ever a way that nullsec groups will not gravitate towards a unified front, trying to deflect any potential dangers to their income stream.

But even if they all group together, how could they possibly resist the CFC?